The $10 Trillion Question
The law of large numbers says the giants have to slow down. Thomas Laffountâs data says the opposite. Who makes the ten trillion-dollar club and who might not?
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Hey Ho, Letâs Go!
Pirates love weird data.
Thomas Laffount of Coatue shared some cool stuff at the recent All-In-Podcast Liquidity event.
A unicorn worth a billion-dollar valuation has an 8% chance of becoming a decacorn at ten billion.
A decacorn has a 13% chance of becoming a centicorn at one hundred billion.
A centicorn has a 31% chance of becoming worth a trillion-dollar valuation.
VC David Sacks had the most valuable observation. And question. Does it suggest that the odds go even higher for a one trillion dollar company to become a ten trillion dollar company?
The data suggests Sacksâ hunch was right.
This insight contradicts the law of large numbers. The largest companies are expected to grow more slowly. The law of large numbers says your growth rate comes down as you get bigger. They even called it a âlawâ.
Now, thereâs a new POV.
The Big Are Getting Bigger
The Mag 7-10 are too big to keep compounding, right?
Nvidia cannot run from five trillion to ten trillion, can it? Can Apple be any bigger? The math runs out, doesnât it?
They can.
Letâs look at more weird data.